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Super Bowl XLVII Prop Picks

AP3 covered most of them here here and here, so I'll just give you the ones I really like. Let's focus on winning some coin this weekend.

Will there be a score in the first 7:30 of the game?

Yes -170
No +130

Between the hype and butterflies, and the stout defenses there is no fucking way there will be a quick score. The only reason the line says otherwise is that people love to bet the over, and 7:30 feels like a long time. But you really only need to survive the first possession from both teams. Here's an easy win to start you off on the right foot.

Shortest Touchdown of the game O/U 1.5 yards

Over +110
Under -140 

Getting a 1 yard touchdown seems like more of a long shot to me. I know the teams can run and pound the ball. Certainly they could pound it down to the one yard line then score from there. But far more likely, nobody ever even snaps the ball from the one yard line. Take the +110 value and run with it.

What will Flacco throw first?

An Interception +180
A Touchdown -240

I see the 49ers defense giving him fits, and I see him throwing an interception probably off of a tipped ball in the first quarter.

Joe Flacco's first pass will be...
Colin Kaepernick's first pass will be...

Incomplete +150
Complete -200
Intercepted +1500

I feel like there is a lot of value betting that both of them will throw incompletions on their first pass. Neither guy has played on a stage this big, so there will be plenty of nerves going crazy. Mix in the good defenses and the plus odds and you have a great bet.

Ed Reed O/U 4 tackles + assists

Over +125
Under -155

Ed has been invisible in these playoffs so far. It's about time he stepped up. Especially if the 49ers can run the ball like I think they will be able to. He should be up around the line getting in on a lot of tackles, and he should have plenty of guys breaking through the first two lines of defense only to have to stop them himself.

First Touchdown
Kaepernick +700
Vernon Davis +800
LaMichael James +1200

Frank Gore is the favorite at +400 and he should be. But these guys have much better value. James or Kaepernick could run it in from anywhere on the field or they could look for their biggest target in Vernon Davis in the redzone.


Kaepernick +120
Frank Gore +550
Willis +2500
Bowman +3000

Another year in which you are probably better off betting the MVP instead of the game line itself. Kaepernick should win MVP, but if you are going to do that you need to spread some love around by hedging with the right guys just to be safe. So throw some money on the other guy that could run for three touchdowns and the two best defensive players that could get 15 tackles including a couple sacks and maybe force a turnover or two.

Good luck everyone and let the greatest gambling spectacle be nice to us this year.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

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