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NFL Pick'Em: Week 12, 2014

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Falcons -3 vs Browns  

AP3 - Browns 

Big Country - Falcons

Lock Alert 

The Falcons have won two straight games since there by, and now face a Browns team that really wasn’t impressive last week. I think the Hoyer magic/luck is starting to wear off, and we could see the Browns fall into a tail spin.



MLZ - Browns

Lock Alert

Moneyline Special +145 

On the surface you have what seems like a fair line and even game as the Falcons get the three point home field advantage from Vegas. It feels right because it is against the Browns. But don't lose track of the fact that the Falcons are only a division leader thanks to a tiebreaker with their 4-6 record. Yes, the Falcons have won two in a row since their bye, and have played three straight quality games but they are dead last against the passing game and with Josh Gordon coming back... look out for a huge game and a Browns blowout. 

Eagles -11 vs Titans 


AP3 - Titans

I've been in this knockout pool way longer than I should have been...


Big Country - Eagles

The Titans have lost by 2 TDs 2 of the last 3 weeks, and those were too teams that were much more inferior then the Eagles.  



MLZ - Eagles

I think I was a week early on the big LeSean McCoy game. The Titans rank dead last against the run and the Eagles are looking to bounce back from an embarassment in Lambeau. 

Patriots -7 vs Lions


AP3 - Lions

Pats are due for a come back down to earth game. Strong defense of the Lions helps with that.



Big Country - Lions

Yes, the Patriots have been on a roll as of late, and they should win. But I find it hard to give more than 7, even if it’s just 7.5, when they are facing a Lions team that has been very impressive this season.    



MLZ - Patriots

Matthew Stafford is a staggering 0-15 on the road against teams that finish the season over .500. It is because of him that the Lions offense is somehow worse with Calvin Johnson in the lineup. The Lions just are not in the same class as the Patriots.   


Vikings +8 vs Packers   


AP3 - Packers

Lock Alert

Vikings are too injured and too shitty to keep it close.. 

Big Country - Packers 

Lock Alert 


The Vikings have failed to score over 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games. They defense won’t slow down the Packers, and the offense won’t be able keep up with them.



MLZ - Packers

Is there a more overrated team in the NFL right now than the Packers? Everybody is thinking they are the next Super Bowl champs yet by my math are still coached by Mike McCarthy. They should beat the Vikings easily but get ready to unload your bank account on the Patriots in Lambeau next week.  


Colts -14 vs Jaguars 


AP3 - Jaguars

Upset Alert!

Look for the Jags to waltz into Indy and steal a W in an extremely low scoring game. 

Big Country - Jaguars


Ugh. The Jaguars stink, but 14 points? I mean, that’s a lot. In fact, the Jaguars haven’t lost by over 14 points since September 28th. That’s almost 2 months. Got to take the points. 


MLZ - Colts

While this feels like too many points, Andrew Luck feasts on bad opponents especially at home and especially following a tough loss at home. 


Texans -1.5 vs Bengals 


AP3 - Bengals  

Lock Alert

Mallet may be better than Dalton, but the rest of the Bengals > the rest of the Texans



Big Country - Texans 

I have made my thoughts on Andy Dalton quite clear. He’s not good, he just beats up on bad defenses. But the Texans are NOT a bad defense. 



MLZ - Bengals

Lock Alert

The Bengals are not going to quit. By my math they should be the #6 seed and they should win this game. 



Bears -5.5 vs Bucs


AP3 - Bucs

Nevermind against the spread. Grab the over in this game. 2 BAD defenses with big play wide receivers.

Big Country - Bears  

I’m not saying the Bears are back just because they beat the Vikings. But at least they showed some life. And most importantly, they aren’t the Bucs. 

MLZ - Bears

I really wish the Bears would just forfeit the rest of the season and start their offseason vacations early. 



Seahawks -7 vs Cardinals 


AP3 - Seattle

Lock Alert

Seattle at home against Drew Stanton? #FreeMoney 



Big Country - Cardinals 

I want to count out the Cards now that Palmer is out, but they keep finding ways to win. I’m not saying they will win this week, but getting 7 points with a 9-1 team is too good to pass up. 


MLZ - Cardinals 

This line is beyond ridiculous. While the Seahawks should win by more than one touchdown simply because they need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, this is WAY too many points to be laying. 



Chargers -5 vs Rams 


AP3 - Chargers

I apolozige for the previous use of #. 

Big Country - Rams

Upset Alert  

Prior to last week the Chargers had lost 3 straight. Last week they beat the Raiders by 7. The win before that?Another Raiders win, this time by 3. This Chargers team isn’t playing good football, and the Rams are. Expect the upset. 



MLZ - Chargers 

The Rams have been the best bad team thus far this season but the Chargers are in need of a comfortable win to gain their confidence back. It should come this week agaisnt an opponent coming off a dominating win against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. 



Broncos -7 vs Dolphins 


AP3 - Dolphins

Denver wins, but Miami is the team that won't go away. 



Big Country - Broncos

After losing last week the Broncos are going to come out hot. Look for a HUGE win by Denver. 


MLZ - Broncos

Speaking of the Broncos, they might have some serious injury issues but they need to get back on track. I would expect them to struggle in the first half, making the Dolphins +4 first half line full of value, but ultimately the Broncos will flex their muscle and cover this line. 



49ers -9 vs Redskins 


AP3 - 49ers

Toss up between which team has the worst locker room chemistry right now. 



Big Country - Redskins


MLZ - 49ers

The Redskins are amongst the worst teams in the league and the 49ers need to win. That combination should be enough to easily cover this line. 


Giants +3.5 vs Cowboys 


AP3 - Giants

Feels like one of those Sundays capped off by Eli Manning ruining everything again. 

Big Country - Cowboys  

The Giants haven’t won since October 5th, and I haven’t seen anything that makes me think they are going to turn the corner. Tony Romo should be well rested after the bye, and I think they run away with it. 



MLZ - Cowboys

For whatever reason I have a special place in my heart for Romo and the Cowboys. There is a large part of me that could see the good version of Eli showing up to ruin the Cowboys run at the NFC East crown but I am going to ride the better team even though my brain wants me to bet the Giants money line. 


Bills -2.5 vs Jets 


AP3 - Jets

Hey at least we get a second game on Monday Night 



Big Country - Jets  


The Bills haven’t been able to leave their homes for 4 days. They aren’t practicing or doing anything besides praying for sunlight. I’m going to go with the team that can practice.  



MLZ - Bills 


I haven't understood a single thing that Vegas has done with a Jets' line all season. I don't have a ton of confidence in the Bills at home in Detroit but Vegas has vastly overrated the Jets from the beginning like they are a massive public team. Maybe they are and Vegas keeps winning money, but so do I. 



Saints -2.5 vs Ravens 


AP3 - Saints

Look for Brees to finally get it going against a banged up Ravens defense. 



Big Country - Ravens 


The Saints aren’t really good this year. Even at home I haven’t been to impressed. This game is a bit of a coin flip, so I’ll take the points. 



MLZ - Ravens  


I truely believe that the Ravens are going to finish 10-6 and win the NFC North. In order to do so, they need to knock off this Saints team on the road following their bye. 



Year to date:


79-77-5 Overall 

2-7 Upset Alert

1-11 Lock Alert

Big Country 

77-79-5 Overall

1-7 Upset Alert 

6-9-1 Lock Alert


77-79-5 Overall

0-4 Upset Alert

11-18-1 Lock Alert 

Saturday, November 22, 2014 

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