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Handicapping the 2013 Academy Awards

So last week I handicapped NBA All-Star Weekend for you, this week I will take a look at the 2013 Oscars and who I feel should and who I feel will win the major awards. Let's take a look.

Before we begin, kudos to the Academy for choosing Seth McFarlane to host the awards this year. Billy Crystal is good at it, but he is well over used, and we don't need another James Franco mishap. Let's kick off the major categories.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role Nominees

Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables -5000

Sally Field – Lincoln +1400

Amy Adams – The Master +2500

Helen Hunt – The Sessions +2500

Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook +5000

Who will win: Hathaway

Who should win: Hathaway

You could argue: Sally Field

Sally Field is the only one that comes close to touching Hathaway in this award. Field plays a pretty convincing Mrs. Lincoln, but the I Dreamed a Dream performance by Hathaway in Les Mis is what the people at the Academy live for.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role Nominees

Christoph Waltz –
Django Unchained +130

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln +140

Robert DeNiro – Siver Linings Playbook +400

Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master +1000

Alan Arkin – Argo +4000

Who will win: Jones

Who should win: Waltz

You could argue: DeNiro

Waltz and director Quentin Tarantino as a team may have been one of the best things to ever happen to movies. His performance in Django Unchained is just as good, if not better, than his performance in Inglorious Basterds. However, the winner this year will be Tommy Lee Jones, he did a good job in Lincoln, and is the safe pick for the Academy because there's no racism involved. This brings us to Bobby DeNiro. If you haven't seen Silver Linings Playbook, then do yourself a favor and watch it. DeNiro plays a crazy gambler that has several superstitions in one of his best movies in quite a while.

Best Actress in a Leading Role Nominees

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook 4/9

Emannuelle Riva – Amour 5/2

Jessia Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty 6/1

Maomi Watts – The Impossible 33/1

Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild 40/1

Who will win: Lawrence

Who should win: Lawrence

You could argue: Riva

Jennifer Lawrence is phenomenal in SLP. She plays a crazy widow opposite of Bradley Cooper (who is also crazy). The range of emotion shown by Lawrence is enough to net her the win in this category. Riva can be argued as a potential winner because every year some foreign flick comes in and
steals an award from a deserving candidate.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln 1/50

Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables 12/1

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook 33/1

Joaquin Phoenix – The Master 33/1

Denzel Washington – Flight 40/1

Who will win: Lewis

Who should win: Jackman

You could argue: Cooper

Allegedly, Daniel Day-Lewis is spot on as one of the most popular presidents of all time as Abraham Lincoln in
Lincoln. I say allegedly, because no one was alive when Lincoln was president. So though I do think he gave a great performance, I don't think he should be getting the gold statue. Hugh Jackman sings for an entire movie and (no homo) also got himself super jacked for the shirtless scenes. Bradley Cooper is just as good as J Law in SLP, but because of DDL and Jackman, he remains a long shot for best actor despite his stellar performance.

Best Director

Steven Spielberg –
Lincoln 1/3

Ang Lee – Life of Pi 3/1

David O. Russell – SilverLiningsPlaybook 14/1

Michael Haneke – Amour 14/1

Benh Zeitlin – BeastsoftheSouthernWild 50/1

Who will win: Spielberg

Who should win: Spielberg

You could argue: Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow

Despite one major historical inaccuracy involving a vote that took place (Connecticut nods), Lincoln was a very good movie and Spielberg did a great job of putting it all together. That being said if the government wasn't all pissed off at Affleck and Bigelow taking true stories and putting them on film, this would be a whole new ballgame.

Best Picture

Argo 1/6

Lincoln 4/1

The Silver Linings Playbook 20/1

Zero Dark Thirty 33/1

Django Unchained 40/1

Les Miserables 50/1

Life of Pi 50/1

Amour 100/1

Beasts of the Southern Wild 100/1

Who will win: Argo

Who should win: Les Miserables

You could argue: Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained

After all of the other award shows that Argo won at, one would assume they would be a lock to win at the Oscars. Well, I think they win, but I think it is close. Argo is a great movie, but like I said before, the government is pissed about it possibly revealing secrets. We've also talked about Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook, and why they could win. We didn't get into much about Django (other than Waltz) but that movie was also well done by Tarantino. It's all about Chris Waltz and Jamie Foxx riding around on horses killing slave owners. It's got everything a Tarantino film should have, and for that it is an awesome movie. But because it is a controversial topic, it won't win. If Argo doesn't win it wouldn't be a huge surprise, given the way the Academy votes, but it is my pick to win.

Best Odds: Lincoln 4/1

My Favorite: Silver Linings Playbook

Saturday, February 23, 2013

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