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Goody's 500 at Martinsville 

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Sunday 1:30pm ESPN 

Thankfully Martinsville is coming up to wash the bitter taste of that Talladega race out of our mouths. While it provided some good, hard racing it just felt a bit disappointing. Maybe it was because of the lack of a big wreck until the last lap, but something just feels disappointing about last weekend. This Martinsville race is going to be exceptional. This short track provides some great racing and a lot of aggravated drivers. There might be a fight or two before sundown tomorrow.

Stay Away From:

Kyle Busch 7-1

Kyle has never won at the paperclip. He actually has not been all that great here at all. He does have eight top 5’s in 17 races but he also has seven finished outside of the top 20. Kyle finds trouble and at this track trouble will find you, that’s a deadly combo.

Kurt Busch 35-1

Speaking of guys that find trouble. It must run in their blood or something. Kurt at least has a win here but he also has twelve finishes outside of the top 20 in his 26 races.

Best Bets:

Denny Hamlin 7-1

Only two active drivers have won more races than Hamlin at Martinsville and he is sitting on the pole. Since his back injury he has faded in races as stamina may be an issue. But starting out front here he should get some clean air and some adrenaline that will give him what it takes to win this thing.

Jeff Gordon 8-1

Here is one of the two guys ahead of Denny. Jeff has won here seven times and will be rolling out 9th. We have been on a little run of guys getting their first victory of the year, this may be Jeff’s week.

Brad Keselowski 18-1  

18-1 for the blue deuce is the best value you will be able to find on this board. He has the fourth best average finish among active drivers at Martinsville and is rolling out in 11th place. How could you not love him at 18-1?

Best Value Bet:

Jeff Burton 100-1

If there is a longshot that is going to win it this week, it will be Burton. He’s the 10th best active driver here, average finish wise, and has won here in the past. He’s looking for a full time job for next season, a win would go a long ways, and he knows that.

My Pick:

Jimmie Johnson +150

When I said that this track provides a lot of aggravated drivers, Johnson, hasn’t been one of them since his first Cup race here. His stats are incredible. In his 22 starts after his rookie effort, he has finished outside the top 10 just twice and he finished in 11th and 12th place in those two. He has won a record eight times and finished inside the top 5 sixteen times. This week he starts outside row 1. That is all I needed to hear to make this pick. +150 or -150 he is worth the bet.


Saturday, October 26, 2013

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