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College Football Weekly: Week 15, 2013 

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For a couple reasons this may be the most I’ve ever looked forward to writing this piece. First, I finally have my college football head screwed on right after going 7-2 with my locks, 1-0-1 with teasers (push because SBG allows pushes in teasers), 3-0 in moneyline specials and winning my best bet for a total of 12-2-1 in my fifteen picks last week. The other reason is of course because of that Iron Bowl game. Was that the greatest college football game ever? That ending of course was flat out insane but it almost overshadows how great of a game it actually was from soup to nuts. After back to back good weeks for me, I’m nearly back to .500 and I have found a trend… it’s that I win during weeks in which I figure out a trend. This week drink every time I mention public teams, what percentage of people are betting the team I’m telling you to bet against or explain why the better team isn’t going to cover. I would say “Actually don’t you may die” but Championship Week has a small slate, so just don’t drink 151, moonshine, or Mangria.

Big Games

Cincinnati vs Louisville Thursday 7:30pm on ESPN

Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Friday 8pm on ESPN2

MAC Championship at Ford Field in Detroit, MI

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma 12pm on ABC

Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 with a win

PS. Why would they play this game before the Baylor/Texas matchup? Couldn’t they have flexed this game or something? Why wouldn’t you want Baylor and Texas to play balls to the wall and then hope that State loses instead of having them focused on the television before their game? Shame on you TV networks/NCAA/Big 12.

Rice vs Marshall 12pm on ESPN2

Conference USA champ in Rice Stadium in Houston, TX  

Baylor vs Texas 3:30pm on Fox

The winner of this game needs an Oklahoma State loss to win the Big 12

Auburn vs Missouri 4pm on CBS

SEC Championship in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA

Arizona State vs Stanford 7:50pm on ESPN

Pac 12 Championship in Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, AZ

Florida State vs Duke 8pm on ABC

Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC

Michigan State vs Ohio State 8:20pm on Fox

Big 10 Championship in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN

Fresno State vs Utah State 10pm on CBS

Mountain West Championship in Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, CA

Locks (27-28-1)

Rice +5 vs Marshall

Short and sweet… I added this one last minute after realizing that 71% of people are betting Marshall -5 against a Rice team playing at home. Take the points and get ready for more talk like this…

Cincinnati +3.5 vs Louisville

Louisville really blew it by losing at home to UCF. Now despite being #19 they won’t be winning this weird, weak, semi-new conference with what might be the next #1 pick at quarterback. They may have won four straight since that loss to UCF but their last two wins came at home vs Houston and Memphis respectively, by only seven points apiece. Cincinnati however has rattled off six straight wins including huge road wins in their last two games (52-18 @ Rutgers and 24-17 @ Houston). This team is rolling and Louisville is the trendy bet. 61% of gamblers are already putting their money on Louisville. This is a great play because this defense is 10th in the nation in points allowed and will have had 11 days to prep for this game. You know they want to finish inside the top 25 and a 10-2 record with a win over Teddy Bridges to close out the season is the only way that is going to happen.

Bowling Green +4.5 @ Northern Illinois *In Detroit

Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch has accumulated 2457 passing yards with 22 passing touchdowns as well as 1755 rushing yards with 20 rushing touchdowns and he also caught one pass for a 17 yard touchdown. He is the reason they are 12-0. But him being such a large part of their offense is the reason why they have struggled the past few weeks. While they were able to pull away late they were playing the likes of Toledo and Western Michigan whom now have a total of eight wins on the season. Bowling Green is a whole different animal. Once again we have a stellar defense against a trendy pick of a team that is undefeated and looking to crash the BCS party. More on this in a bit…

Texas +15 @ Baylor

Maybe last week was a hangover game for Baylor but 15 points?! Two weeks ago Baylor lost 49-17 and last week they barely escaped TCU with a three point win. Texas is probably not a good football team but they have had a habit of showing up for big games this year. Both teams only conference loss came at the hands of Oklahoma State. However, while Baylor has put up huge points and destroyed almost all defenses that stood in their way, en route to becoming a public team, the only ranked team they have beaten was Oklahoma at home, when they were still vastly overrated. On the other hand Texas has only beaten one ranked team… Oklahoma… but when it came while they were a huge underdog. After losing to Oklahoma State they rolled over Texas Tech 41-16 and now stroll in on extra rest for a struggling Baylor team. 58% of people are going with Baylor and that would be higher if Vegas didn’t protect themselves with a three score head start. They could win this outright but take the 15 points, Baylor should win the game but it should be a close one as both teams are gunning for a Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma +9.5 @ Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is playing some great football. After losing @ WVU by nine back in week 4, it seemed as though the season was lost. Now they have won seven straight and their past two games have been wins @ Texas and vs undefeated Baylor. But, that early loss seeped a tiny bit of doubt into their team. For most of the season they were really down on themselves but they did take care of business. Now they are riding really high after back to back big wins. Now they are the extreme opposite… they are almost too high on themselves after beating Texas and Baylor by a combined 57 points. They are due for a letdown game and what better time for it than following two huge wins with their upcoming game coming against their in-state rivals where they know the title is within reach.

State should win this game and that’s why they shouldn’t have allowed them to play this game before the Baylor/Texas game but nevertheless OU is going to make this as tough on the Cowboys as anyone since WVU.

Duke +29 @ Florida State

This Florida State team is really good at football. But please try and explain to me anything that would be more fun than Duke winning this football game. Remember when Boise State burst onto the scene? Expect the kitchen sink from Duke while FSU is heading into this game with thoughts of winning a national championship, not just the ACC Championship… yes this counts drink. This game is in Charlotte for christ sake. Even still people assume Duke football sucks, but this is their first ever ACC championship game and it comes against a team with their minds elsewhere is going to provide a little David vs Goliath aspect, oh and they get to attempt to pull off a huge upset basically at home.

Stanford +3 @ Arizona State

Stanford is flat out tough. Arizona State may have won their past seven games but Stanford won vs #9 UCLA, @ #25 Oregon State and vs #2 Oregon in consecutive weeks. They may have stumbled against an occasional weaker opponent, they are among the most battle tested teams in the nation. They are a legit great football team. Arizona State is on a roll but they already lost to Stanford this season and it was by two touchdowns. While the Sun Devils get the three point home advantage Stanford is the better team and they are going to win this game outright. AKA expect to see them again in a couple lines.

Moneyline Specials (7-11)

Cincinnati +150 vs Louisville

Stanford +140 @ Arizona State

Thanks for the added value.

Bowling Green +170 vs Northern Illinois *In Detroit

Betting Northern Illinois violates about 98% of gambling rules/trends. Northern Illinois a public team with an enticing line and a one man offense, that has struggled as of late, going up against a team that carries a negative connotation yet has the nation’s 5th best defense, that has allowed a total of 17 points in their past three games, with a fast defense capable of containing Northern Illinois’ one man offense all while Northern Illinois is looking forward to bigger things that may be coming down the pike.

Teasers (7-6-1)

Oklahoma +15.5 @ Oklahoma State

Auburn +4 vs Missouri

Stanford +9 @ Arizona State

Vegas style teaser fetching +180 odds. Transforming the OU line into a three score game, the Auburn line into allowing for a loss by a late field goal and the Stanford line into a head start of over a touchdown just feels like it can’t lose.

Best Bet (6-9)

Auburn -2 vs Missouri

The only favorite I am taking this week is my “Best Bet”. While it probably breaks more gambling rules than betting Northern Illinois, Auburn is going to win this game and by sheer odds they will cover. The Tigers are really, really good at running the ball. They can control the clock and they have proven that they can stop two dimensional quarterbacks. While they may be riding high, their goal all along has not been to win the Iron Bowl, it has been to win the SEC Championship and from there hopefully the National Championship.

Michigan State/Ohio State Under 51.5

Hey wait is this another trend? Yet another best bet that feels a bit out of whack. OSU survived after Brady cHoke made the idiotic call of going for two at the end of that game last weekend, otherwise they might not still be undefeated. While Michigan State won a game that featured 17 total points. On average Michigan State allows 11.8ppg while OSU allows 20.3ppg. 51.5 is simply out of reach for any type of game here. I wanted to take MSU with the points and eventually MSU’s moneyline but I decided that felt right in the heart, not in the head. This feels good enough to make it worthy of doubling down in the “Best Bet” section. If OSU rolls then MSU doesn’t score enough points to go over. If MSU is going to win it’s a low scoring game. If OSU wins a close one it might be 24-23 at the max.

PS. I just simply wanted to watch this again, maybe you did too…


Wednesday, December 4, 2013 

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